摘要
政治环境造成的不确定性影响了投资的风险,进而影响了投资的决策,而投资又与经济发展息息相关。本文运用比较案例分析中最新的合成控制法研究了政治环境对区域经济发展的影响,并以海峡两岸关系的演进为例对这一影响进行了量化分析。本文的研究发现海峡两岸关系紧张程度的提高影响了与台湾距离最近,同时也拥有诸多对台优惠政策的福建省的经济发展水平。自2001年以来,海峡两岸关系紧张程度的提高累计降低了福建省人均GDP约5460.35元,平均每年人均GDP损失约为682.54元,年损失率约为12.1%。
The uncertainty induced by the political environment affects the investment risk, and thus affects the investment decision which has a close relationship with economic development. The paper uses the latest development technique in comparative case study the synthetic control method to study the influence of political environment on regional economic development and calculates the quantity of such influence based on the evolution of Cross-Strait relations. The intense situation of the Cross-Strait have great influence on the economic development of Fujian that is the closest province near Taiwan and also possesses the great preferential policies for Taiwan investment. The empirical result shows that because of the intense situation, the decrease of GDP per capita in Fujian has amounted to 5460. 35 yuan since 2001 approximately, which means that the average loss of GDP per capita in Fujian is about 682. 54 yuan, 12. 1% lower than synthetic GDP per capita very year.
出处
《南方经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第4期30-39,共10页
South China Journal of Economics
基金
国家社科基金项目(编号:10BJL032)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(编号:09YJC790122)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
政治环境
经济发展
合成控制法
Political Environment
Economic Development
Synthetic Control Method
