摘要
外债的适度规模对一国的经济有着重要的意义,那么哪些因素影响我国的外债规模?本文概括了外债所涉及三类运作渠道的相关因素,运用时间序列的协整检验以及Granger因果检验方法检验影响我国长短期外债规模的因素。结论得出:影响长期外债规模的为财政盈余;影响短期外债的为财政支出、国家预算内固定资产投资、城乡储蓄总额以及热钱的流入,而短期外债也会反作用于外汇储备与财政收入;外债总额促进了GDP的增加。
The modest size of foreign debt on a country＇ s economy is significant, then what factors affect the scale of China＇ s foreign debt？ This paper summarizes correlative factors through the three types of channel which the operation of external debt are involved in. The methods of cointegration tests and Granger tests are used to analyze the factors to act on the long-term and the short-term external debts. The conclusions are drawn： the fiscal surplus Granger cause the long-term foreign debt; the state budget investment in fixed assets, the total urban ＆ rural savings and hot money cause the short-term debt to change. At same time the short-term debt will also work back on foreign exchange reserves and fiscal revenue; external debt promotes the increase of the GDP.
出处
《预测》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第3期27-31,共5页
Forecasting
