摘要
为减少海上交通事故的发生,在建立沿海水域(Coastal Water Area,CWA)交通安全评估因素三层次结构的基础上,针对事故统计数据的不确定性,尝试采用证据推理(Evidential Reasoning,ER)方法进行CWA交通安全评估,并运用案例证实该方法的可行性.评估结果可以为海事安全管理工作决策提供参考依据.
To reduce maritime traffic accidents, on the basis of establishing the three-level structure of Coastal Water Area （CWA） traffic safety assessment factors, an Evidential Reasoning （ER） approach is attempted to assess CWA traffic safety in view of the uncertainty of the accident statistics, and feasibility of the method is confirmed by a case. The assessment result provides a decision reference for the maritime safety management.
出处
《上海海事大学学报》
北大核心
2011年第2期37-41,共5页
Journal of Shanghai Maritime University
基金
上海市教育委员会科研创新项目(09YZ252)
关键词
沿海水域
交通安全评估
证据推理
信任度
coastal water area
traffic safety assessment
evidential reasoning
belief degree
