摘要
将区位理论、区域科学、交通规划等学科中广泛应用的引力模型引入县域区际客运需求分析,提出了基于引力模型的县域区际客运需求分析方法。该方法突破了传统方法仅限于用县域范围内的经济、社会变量去解释客流生成的局限,对县域交通需求生成分布特性进行了学术归纳,建立了区际客流量与基于相互作用区域的生产总值、人口、距离、车程时间、区域面积5个经济、社会及交通条件变量之间的方程关系。实证应用表明:该方法模型能被实例数据所标定,能很好地解释县域区际客运需求生成、分布机理,量化识别客运需求影响因素,预测客运需求内生变量的变化对线路客流量与需求潜力的影响;该方法丰富了县域区际客运需求分析理论,具有较重要的理论与实践应用意义。
The gravity model applied to location theory,regional science and trip distribution theory was used to analyze passenger transportation demand of county level＇s interzonal highway.Based on the gravity model,authors put forward analysis method for the passenger transportation demand for country level＇s interzonal highway.The limit of only using the county＇s social and economic elements as explanatory variables was broken,theoretical generalization of generation distribution character of county level＇s passenger transportation demand was carried out.The relations of the interzonal passenger flows and interaction region＇s social and economic variables,such as gross product,population,distance,time,area were established in the method.The verified application shows that the method can be calibrated by practical data,and can be used to explain the mechanism of generation and distribution of passenger transportation demand,to recognize the influence factor of passenger transportation demand,and to predict the influence of endogenous variable variation of passenger transportation demand on passenger flow volume and passenger transportation demand potential.The suggestion of this method enriches the demand analysis theory for country level＇s interzonal passenger transportation demand,and takes on an important significance of theoretical and practical application.
出处
《中国公路学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期101-107,共7页
China Journal of Highway and Transport
关键词
交通工程
县域交通
引力模型
区际客运需求
traffic engineering
county level transportation
gravity model
interzonal passenger transportation demand
