摘要
基于GTAP模型,结合Walmsley等递归动态法,就《中智自由贸易协定》全面实施对双方在贸易规模、贸易结构、双边贸易、GDP、生产格局和福利水平等方面产生的经济效应进行仿真.研究结果显示,双方贸易规模及产出水平明显扩大;国内资源分配格局有所改变,贸易结构处于较快的变动中;两国GDP有所增长,双边贸易显著增强,社会福利明显改善;中国贸易条件相对恶化,农产品所受负面冲击有限,高级化服务业发展迅速;智利制造业受益匪浅,产业结构趋于相对平衡;双方利益让渡不一致,福利所得分配不等,智利所受的经济影响要明显大于中国,而中国的动态比较利益会使其福利所得明显高于智利.
Applying GTAP model and Walmsley＇s dynamic recursion, this paper does a computable general equilibrium analysis on the economic impact of China-Chile FTA＇s full implementation on both member nations from aspects of trade scale, trade structure, bilateral trade, GDP, and welfare level. The results indicate that, both sides＇ trade scales expand evidently, domestic resource allocation pattern changes, trade structures undergo rapid transformation; China suffers limited negative impact on its agricultural products, and deteriorates in terms of trade; Chile benefits obviously in manufacturing, its industrial structure tends to relative equilibrium; both sides＇ GDP grow evidently, and their social welfare improve significantly; as both sides＇ benefit concession is not in phase, the welfare distribution is unequal; Chile suffers more economic impact than China, while China achieves more national welfare than Chile under dynamic comparative advantages.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第21期22-30,共9页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
