摘要
选择镇江、江阴、浒浦、七浦、吴淞口等潮位站为研究对象,通过分析沿江各潮位站日平均水位的影响因素,利用多元线性回归建立了沿江各站日平均水位与上游大通站日平均流量过程的相关关系;在此基础上,考虑到沿江各站日平均水位除了与上游大通站流量有关外,还与吴淞口天文潮的大小有关,增加了能够反映潮差大小的相关因子,有效提高了相关方程的精度.由于吴淞口潮汐向上游传播时会产生潮差减小、相位后移、潮汐变形等水力现象,沿江各站的潮差大小与吴淞口潮差大小及长江干流的流量有密切关系,建立了相应的潮差相关方程.通过此相关途径方法来预报沿江各断面整点潮位过程,可取得较高的预报精度.
Base on the analysis of the factors that influence the daily average water level at the tidal stations along the Yangtze River,the correlation between the daily average water level at the tidal stations along the Yangtze River and the daily average discharge at Datong Station in upper Yangtze River was established by using the multiple linear regression equation.The Zhenjiang,Jiangyin,Xupu,Qipu,and Wusongkou tidal stations were selected for case study.The precision of the correlation equation was improved by adding the tidal range factor to the equation,considering that the daily average water level at the tidal stations along the Yangtze River was not only correlated with the daily average discharge at Datong Station in upper Yangtze River,but with the astronomical tide at Wusongkou Station.Based on the fact that there will be a decrease of the tidal range,phase delay,and tidal deformation when the tides at Wusongkou Station spread upstream,and the tidal ranges at the tidal stations along the Yangtze River are in close relation with the tidal range at Wusongkou Station and the discharge of the main stream of the Yangtze River,the correlation equation for the tidal range was established.The results show a high precision in forecasting the tidal level processes at the sections along the Yangtze River with the correlation analysis method.
出处
《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第6期607-611,共5页
Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)
关键词
潮位预报
潮差因子
天文潮位
相关分析
长江下游
tidal level forecast
tidal range factor
astronomical tidal level
correlation analysis
lower Yangtze River
