摘要
以邢台市2000-2007年的统计数据为基础,应用基于信息扩散理论的模糊数学方法,建立邢台市农业旱灾风险评价模型,对邢台旱灾风险进行分析。结果表明:邢台旱灾受灾概率在受灾指数为10%时达到峰值,在受灾指数超过30%之后几乎为零;成灾风险值显示邢台市在应对旱灾方面已取得显著成效,但该市平均每1.7a遭受到一次受灾面积超过10%的旱灾,农业旱灾仍不容忽视。研究结果增加了对邢台市旱情的清楚认识,对区域防灾减灾的可持续发展具有指导意义。
By using the statistical data of Xingtai City in 2000-2007 and the fuzzy mathematical method based on information diffusion principle,risk models of agricultural drought disaster of Xingtai City was established,the drought disaster risk of this city was analyzed.The results show that the damage probability of drought disaster in Xingtai City reaches maximum when the index is 10% and it is almost zero after the index is over 30%;the value of disaster risk shows that Xingtai City has made remarkable achievement in response to drought disaster,but this city suffered a drought that the drought-affected area is more than 10% on average 1.7 a,agricultural drought still cannot be ignored.The results can provide the clear knowledge about drought situation of Xingtai City,and significant guidance for the sustainable development of regional disaster prevention and mitigation.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第6期212-215,共4页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金"区域农业旱灾适应性评价模型与风险防范模式研究"(41171402)
河北省高校重点学科建设项目
关键词
信息扩散
农业旱灾
风险分析
邢台
information diffusion
agriculture drought disaster
risk analysis
Xingtai City
