摘要
通过全国1995～2008年各省区二氧化碳排放和人口发展状况对比发现,人口与二氧化碳排放之间并不呈现简单的正相关关系。本文引入经济系统对人口与二氧化碳排放之间的关系进行关联分析。研究发现,在短时期内,人口增长对二氧化碳排放的影响不可忽视,但从长远来看,经济增长对二氧化碳排放影响更为重要。值得注意的是,虽然人口和经济增长是二氧化碳排放变化的原因,但当滞后期延长,人口和经济系统之间将互为因果,使得人口和二氧化碳排放的关系将更为复杂。
The carbon dioxide emissions of the provinces would be calculated from 1995 to 2008.And we compare the provinces＇ carbon dioxide emissions and population development.We found that the relationship between population and carbon dioxide emissions are not a simple correlation.In order to probe the relation,we introduce the economic variable into the research,take advantage the co-integration analysis and Granger causality test.The paper found that the population and economic growth is the main reason of carbon dioxide emission change.In short run the population growth would impact the carbon dioxide emissions,and increase in carbon dioxide emissions cannot be simply attributed to overpopulation,economic growth impact on carbon dioxide emissions more strongly.
出处
《人口与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第1期16-21,77,共7页
Population & Economics
基金
国家哲学社会科学基金(10crk002)
关键词
人口增长
经济增长
二氧化碳排放
population growth
economic growth
carbon dioxide emissions
