摘要
首先借助生物学集合种群理论构建了银行风险传染的模型;然后基于元胞自动机方法对银行风险传染的时间和空间的动态过程进行模拟,得出了影响银行风险传染的特征,提出了影响银行脆弱性传染速度的因素;最后,在具有相同的传染率和灭绝率下,对比了单点传染和三点传染到达稳定状态的时间步长.对控制银行风险传染,保持银行稳定性具有重大意义.此外,该模型不仅可以对银行系统脆弱性传染过程进行模拟和动态分析,同样也适用于研究金融系统中其他金融机构间的风险传染问题.
First, we constructed the model of bank risk contagion. Second, during time and space based on cellular automata the dynamic process of the contagion was simulated. Through analyzing the contagion feature of bank risk, we put forward the factors which influence the speed of risk contagion for the bank. Finally, under the same infectious rate and extinction rate, comparisons of time step for reaching stable state were made between single point and three points. The conclusion has great significance about controlling the contagion and holding the stability for the bank. Besides, the model could be used not only in the bank risk contagion but also in the else finance system for finance contagion.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第3期543-548,共6页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金(70871055
71173089)
广东省高校高层次人才项目
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-08-0615)
广东省科技计划项目(2010A032000002
2010B010600028)
关键词
银行风险
集合种群模型
元胞自动机
传染率
灭绝率
banking risk
met population model
cellular automata
infectious rate
extinction rate
