摘要
利用胶东半岛近50年来的年平均、年最高、最低温度以及全年累计降水量、6～9月降水数据,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、累积距平法以及有序聚类分析法,分析了胶东半岛最近约50年来气温和降水的变化特征.结果显示:最近50年来胶东半岛气候变化特征主要表现为先是降水量于1980年前后开始明显减少,而后气温于1990年前后突然上升.其中,年平均温度呈显著上升趋势,并在1990年前后发生显著的增温突变;升温主要是年最低温度上升的结果,而年最高温度变化趋势及变化幅度均不明显.年降水量有所减少,大多数水文站年降水在1980年前后发生突变,但部分站点突变时间为1966年;年降水量减少主要是由6～9月降水减少造成的,同时6～9月降水在全年中所占比重也略有下降.此外,半岛东南部各气候要素突变时间较西北部偏早,降水减少幅度也更为明显.比较而言,胶东半岛同期温度变化趋势与我国大部分地区基本一致,但降水量减少显著.
The climate change in Jiaodong Peninsula was analyzed by the non-parametric Mann Kendall test, accumulated difference curve and order cluster analysis methods, based upon the data of annual mean, maxi- mum and minimum temperature and annual precipitation, precipitation from June to September over the past 50 years. The results showed that the coastal climate change of Jiaodong Peninsula was characterized by a remarkable warming trend around 1990, after an abrupt drier condition around 1980 over the past 50 years. The annual mean temperature of Jiaodong Peninsula displayed a significant increasing trend, with a distinct abrupt change point detected around 1990, during the past 5 decades. The warming of the Peninsula over the last 50 years was due mainly to the significant increase of annual minimum temperature. The annual maximum temperature demonstrated a mixed trend of decreasing and increasing, but was statistically insignificant, and no abrupt change was detected. The annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend during the past 5 decades, with an abrupt change detected around 1980 at most stations; but there was an earlier transition point at 1966 ,at a few stations. The reduction in precipitation from June to September was responsible mainly for the decrease of annual precipitation. Besides, the proportion of the June-September precipitation in the year declined slightly over the last 50years. Within the Peninsula, the abrupt change of temperature and precipitation in the Southeast was earlier than in the Northwest; as well as a larger reduction of precipitation was in the Southeast. In comparison, the temperature evolution in Jiaodong Peninsula was basically consistent with most parts of China over the same period; but the decreasing trend of precipitation was more significant.
出处
《鲁东大学学报（自然科学版）》
2012年第1期72-80,F0003,共10页
Journal of Ludong University:Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金(41071011
41171158)
教育部重点项目(210122)
山东省高等学校科技计划项目(J09LE07)
关键词
最近50年
胶东半岛
气候变化
海岸
the last fifty years
Jiaodong Peninsula
climate change
coastal zone
