摘要
基于投入产出法,本文从需求角度分别考察了消费、投资、净出口、中间投入和价格等因素对中国服务业比重变化的影响大小,并与日本、韩国的经验进行比较。中国数据的分解结果表明,价格和居民消费结构是服务业比重上升的最重要因素,中间投入和政府消费是服务业比重下降的最重要因素,其他因素的影响则较小。日本和韩国的分解结果显示,价格和居民消费结构一直都对服务业比重的上升有重要影响,中间投入和投资的影响则与经济发展阶段密切相关。因此,在"十二五"及中长期内,中国服务业在GDP中所占比重将继续保持当前上升态势。
Based on the input-output model, this paper decomposes the ratio of the tertiary industrial added value to GDP into consumption, investment, export, intermediate demand and the price. With input-output tables, we calculate contributions of different factors, and compared which with those of Japan and Korea. International result shows that price and consumption structure are the most important factors influencing proportion of tertiary industry on the GDP; the effect of intermediate input relies on the economic development stage and that of net export is connected with commodity structure. According to international experience and current situation, we believe that the service sector will keep expanding in the period of twelfth Five Year Plan and the medium and long term.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第4期80-94,共15页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目"中国中长期人口老龄化对经济增长和产业结构变化的影响及对策"(71173058/G0301)
教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目"基于新开放宏观经济学的金融危机模型与货币政策协调研究"(11YJC790237)的资助
关键词
投入产出
服务业比重
因素分解
Input-output Model
Tertiary Industry
Influencing Factors
