摘要
针对纸坊沟流域农用地生态经济系统相悖的现实,提出系统可能出现的3种耦合情景模式,即现状情景、"舍饲+轮牧"情景以及停止退耕情景。采用线性优化法,对不同情景下系统的发展状况进行优化模拟并加以比较,最终提出适合该区域发展的最优耦合模式。通过计算得到现状情景、"舍饲+轮牧"情景以及停止退耕情景(包括按现状发展和"舍饲+轮牧"两种情景)下农民的人均收入分别为3 566.83,4 802.31,4 660.88,4 772.88元/人,结果表明"舍饲+轮牧"是纸坊沟流域农用地生态经济系统耦合最佳农用地利用方案。该情景下不仅增强了资源与产业的关联度,同时也在保证现有生态环境的前提下,大大增加了农民的收入。但依照国家的政策,停止发放退耕补贴也是极有可能出现的,如果能够在退耕后继续"舍饲+轮牧"的管理制度,流域的经济发展也不会受太大的影响。
Three scenes on the basis of agriculture land economic system contrary to ecological system were put forward,three scenes were compared and simulated under linear optimization.＇Feeding＋rotational grazing＇ scenario and return agriculture land to forests scenarios（including the present situation development and ＇abandon ＋ rotational grazing＇ scenarios） farmers per capita income respectively is 3 566.83,4 802.31,4 660.88 and 4 772.88 yuan/person,respectively,by calculating the status quo scenario.The result showed that： ＇feeding＋rotational grazing＇ scenario optimization program was the best economic system coupling direction for agricultural land in Zhifanggou watershed.This not only enhances the related degree between resources and industry,while also increases farmer′s income under the premise of ensuring the premise of the existing environment.But according to the state policy,stopping insuring subsidy also probably appeares,local economic development will not suffer too big impact if continue ＇feeding＋rotational grazing＇ management system after stopping return farmland to forest.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第2期180-184,188,共6页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAD31B05)
水土保持研究所科研发展基金"基于农户尺度的安塞县典型区域农业生态经济系统耦合关系研究"(SW09528)
国家自然科学基金项目(40771082)
中科院重大项目(CX-YW-09-07)
关键词
纸坊沟流域
农用地
优化耦合模式
Zhifanggou watershed
agriculture land
optimal coupling pattern
