摘要
建立Markov过程模型和CLUE-S模型的集成模型,选取海拔、坡度、到河流距离、到道路距离等13个驱动因子,基于敦煌市1996年的土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)数据,对2007年的土地利用/覆盖格局进行模拟,模拟效果较好。设置4种情景对敦煌市2018年土地利用/覆盖格局进行预测,揭示不同情景下的土地利用格局变化。情景模拟结果表明:不论是自然发展型情景还是单纯考虑生态保护和经济发展的情景,都仅是单一需求的考虑,不能实现区域又快又好的发展,是不可持续的发展模式。综合发展型情景弥补了上述情景的缺点,比较全面地考虑了生态环境恢复、经济发展等的需要,是一种比较理想的发展模式。
A Markov and CLUE-S integrated model was established to simulate the land use/cover pattern in Dunhuang City in 2007,based on the land use/cover change data in 1996 and selecting altitude,slope,distance to river,and distance to road,etc.as the driving factors.The simulation results had a high reliability,and matched well with the actual situation.In order to reveal the future changes of the land use pattern in the City,four scenarios were set to predict the land use/cover pattern in the City in 2018.The simulation results showed that whether the scenarios were of natural development-oriented or only considering ecological protection and economic development,they were only single demand consideration and could not realize sound and rapid development,being of unsustainable development model.However,the comprehensive development-oriented scenario overcame the shortcomings of the above scenarios,and would be an ideal model of region development,which comprehensively considered the needs of ecological environment restoration and economic development.
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第7期1823-1831,共9页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
甘肃省发改委重大项目(GV2007-08)资助
关键词
土地利用/覆盖格局
情景模拟
集成模型
敦煌市
land use/cover pattern； scenarios simulation； integrated model； Dunhuang City
