摘要
利用1961年-2010年天山地区21站的冬季降雪资料,采用线性倾向估计法、反距离加权法和Morlet小波分析等方法,研究了天山地区近50a冬季降雪量及降雪的集中度与集中期的时空变化特征,并在此基础上应用Rescaled Range Analysis分析方法尝试预测了未来该地区冬季降雪量变化的情形。结果表明:天山地区冬季降雪量呈明显上升趋势,未来天山地区冬季降雪量的变化趋势与过去50a冬季降雪量的变化趋势相同,仍将持续上升,冬季降雪的集中度和集中期也呈上升趋势,但空间差异明显;冬季降雪量及降雪的集中度和集中期在一定的时间序列中存在不同周期变化,且周期反映比较明显;此外研究还发现,天山地区南(北)坡冬季降雪量及降雪的集中度和集中期的年际变化也不尽相同。
Tianshan is a snow disaster-prone area. Developing research on the variation of Tianshan snowfall is good to improve the snowstorm forecast. In this paper, based on the data of winter snowfall during 1961-2010 from twenty-one meteorological stations in the Tianshan Mountains, the spatial and temporal variability of snowfall, snow concentration degree （CD） and concentration period （CP） were analyzed with methods of regression analysis, Inverse Distance Weighted and wavelet analysis, and the winter snowfall variation in future was predicted using Rescaled Range Analysis. The results are as follows： the winter snowfall increases significantly; over the same period, snowfall＇ s CD and CP also increase but not significantly; the differences in spatial distribution are still significant; winter snowfall, CD and CP have different cycle variations in certain time-series, and the cycle is rather significant; the tendency of snowfall＇ s CD and CP on south （north） slope is different from that on north slope in terms of inter-annual change; snowfall＇ s CD in Tianshan decreases roughly from south slope to north slope, while the CP decreases roughly from west to east. The upward tendency of snowfall＇ s CD and CP on south slope shows that snowstorm will possibly increase in late winter. Although snowfall＇ s CD decreases on north slope, the tendency of snowfall is much significant, so north slope is still snow disaster-prone areas. In order to reduce the economic losses caused by snowstorm, relevant departments shall take timely preventive measures. In addition, to further analyze the snowfall characteristics, we need to start research work of its circulation background soon.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第8期1556-1564,共9页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41161012
41171057)
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(编号:NCET-10-0019)
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(编号:2010CB951003)
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(编号:KZCX2-EW-311)
关键词
天山
降雪
集中度
集中期
R
S分析
Tianshan Mountains
Snowfall
Concentration degree
Concentration period
RescaledRange Analysis
