摘要
2012年以来,随着国内外经济形势的变化,用电需求有所放缓,下半年用电增长存在较大的不确定性。为了密切跟踪宏观经济形势发展趋势,准确把握用电市场走势,通过对吉林省电力市场调研,分析预测2012年下半年,重点是四季度吉林省经济发展趋势及本地区电力需求变化状况。分析指出,由于2012年上半年没有新增大型用电项目,以钢铁、汽车等为代表的大型工业企业生产下滑,导致吉林省全社会用电量增长趋慢。综合各方面因素,预计2012年下半年全省用电量将略有回升,用电量将逐步恢复至4%左右。同时指出,由于吉林省近年来装机容量增长较快,大量机组停备,供大于求的局面进一步加剧。同时,由于供热机组较多,以及风电机组容量不断扩大,电网调峰形势不容乐观。针对以上分析提出加强全省经济形势分析预测,密切关注相邻省份用电需求的变化情况,进一步开拓电力市场,通过联络线最大可能的实现电力外送等对策和建议。
The demand of electric power slows down with the changing of economy situations in domestic and aboard from the beginning of this year.Larger uncertainty of the second half of this year still exists.For a close tracking of the trend of macro economy developing trend and an accurate grasp of the trend of power utilization market,survey and research on Jilin electric power market have been carried out.The economy developing trend of Jilin Province and local power demands in the second half of 2012,especially the 4th quarter,have been emphatically analyzed and forecasted.It has been pointed out that no new large scale electricity consuming project and the decline of the production of large scale industry enterprises such as steel iron,automobiles slows down the total society consumed electricity in Jilin Province.With a comprehensive consideration of various factors,it could be predicted that the electricity consumption will pick up gradually to about 4%.It has also been pointed out that oversupply will continue to be aggravated due to quick installation capacity and the standby of more large capacity units.The peak regulation situation also seems to be not good because of more heat supply units and the expanding of wind power capacities.Based on the analysis above,counter measurements and suggestions including to intensify the prediction of the economy situation,to pay close attention to the electricity consumption change,to develop electric market and to fulfill maximum power transmission to other provinces have been proposed.
出处
《吉林电力》
2012年第4期1-4,共4页
Jilin Electric Power
关键词
电力市场
用电需求
分析预测
power electric market
power demands
analysis and forecasting
