摘要
鉴于现有研究缺少从定性角度对干旱进行预测,利用可公度理论中的三元、四元、五元可公度式及构造出的可公度数频率阈值,从定性角度对安徽省1949～2006年间的严重干旱记载年份进行可公度数统计,预测和验证了2007～2011年间可能发生严重干旱及特大干旱,并在延伸记载序列基础上进行再次推演。预测结果表明,安徽省在2012年出现严重干旱、2013年出现特大干旱的可能性较大,希望能引起相关部门的重视。
In view of lacking of drought prediction qualitatively in existing research, based on the historical drought data of Anhui Province from 1949 to 2006, the severe drought of historical records is counted qualitatively with three-variate, four-variate and five-variate formula of commensurability theory and constructed threshold of commensurable frequency. And it predicts and checks that severe drought and extreme drought may occur in the period of 2007 to 2011. Based on the extension record sequence, it deduced again. The prediction results show that the Anhui province has large possibility to appear serious drought in 2012 and extraordinary drought in 2013, which should be paid attention by the related department.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2012年第9期6-8,共3页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41071025)
水利部"948"基金资助项目(201047)
河南省教育厅自然科学研究计划基金资助项目(2010B120007)
河南省科技发展计划基金资助项目(092102310197)
关键词
可公度理论
干旱预测
统计
安徽省
commensurability theory
drought forecasts statistics
Anhui Province
