摘要
截取山东省1999-2010年的经济增长与能源消费数据,测算山东省碳排放总量及煤炭、石油、天然气三类能源碳排放量,分析山东省碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系,并通过对碳排放与经济增长脱钩弹性进行因子分解,定量分析各因子的脱钩影响力。结果表明,山东省碳排放总量及煤炭、石油、天然气三类能源碳排放量总体呈上涨趋势;多数年份中山东省碳排放与经济增长处于弱脱钩状态,碳排放受经济增长驱动较弱;在碳排放与经济增长脱钩影响因子中,能耗脱钩因子的脱钩影响力总体为正值,对碳排放与经济增长脱钩起主导作用,排放脱钩因子影响力较弱。这一结果反映出山东省节能工作已具成效,能源利用效率得到提升,但同时也说明山东省总体减排水平较低,对碳排放与经济增长脱钩贡献有限。山东省应强化节能减排调控,实现能源结构多元化,推动产业低碳化发展,倡导和支持节能减排技术研发与应用。
Based on the energy consumption and economic growth data of Shandong Province in 1999-- 2010, the authors first estimated the total amount of carbon emissions and carbon emissions from three types of primary energy, including coal, oil, and natural gas, and then the authors discussed the decou- pling relations between carbon emissions and economic growth in Shandong Province; furthermore, by de- composing the decoupling elasticity between carbon emissions and economic growth, the authors evaluated the influence of decoupling factors quantitatively. Results show that the total carbon emissions and carbon emissions caused by coal, oil, and natural gas were increasing year by year in Shandong Province, and weak decoupling is found in the most years, which means that the carbon emissions are less significantly driven by economic growth. Of the two decoupling factors, the energy-consumption decoupling factor has a positive influence on the decoupling between carbon emissions and economic growth, and it also plays a leading role in the process, while the influence of emission decoupling factor is weak. On the one hand, it reflects energy-saving programs in Shandong Province are working, and energy use efficiency is improved; on the other hand, it suggests that technologies about carbon emissions reduction in Shandong Province re- main relatively low in general, which has limited its contributions to decoupling carbon emissions from e- conomy growth. For this reason, Shandong Province should strengthen its regulation on energy conserva- tion and emission reduction, make energy consumption structure diversified, promote the development of low-carbon industry and support the research and application of technologies on energy conservation and e- mission reduction.
出处
《中国海洋大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2012年第4期73-79,共7页
Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences)
基金
国家社科基金一般项目"我国海洋渔业经济低碳化实现机制研究"(11BJY064)
教育部基地重大项目"我国海洋优势产业培育及发展战略研究"(11JJD790041)阶段性成果
关键词
经济增长
碳排放
脱钩分析
脱钩因子影响力
economic growth
carbon emissions
decoupling analysis
the influence of decoupling factors
