摘要
文章基于2009年全国10个省份千户农民的调查数据,利用逐步回归技术和交互分析方法,实证分析农民"养儿防老"观念的代际差异及其转变趋向。结果显示,农民"养儿防老"观念表现出显著的代际差异,并且随着时代的发展,农民"养儿防老"观念呈现出明显的弱化趋势,而"养女防老"观念正在农村悄然兴起。农民"养儿防老"观念受多种因素影响,并且代际差异明显。"养儿防老"观念重点转向"依靠自己",但"依靠子女"和"依靠社保"也成为农民应对老年生活风险的重要策略,农民养老保障策略的"三足鼎立之势"已经显现,即以"依靠自己"为主,以"依靠子女"为基础,以"依靠社保"为补充的福利三角框架。
Based on the survey data of a thousand families coming from ten provinces in China in 2009. The paper analyzed its change trend and difference between generations of farmers＂ concept of raising sons for old age by binary logistic backward stepwise and crosstabs method. The results show that farmers＂ concept of raising sons for old age is appearing signal difference between generations and it is going down step by step with the development of the society. The concept of raising daughters for old age is emerging quietly in the rural area. Many factors affect farmers＂ concept of raising sons for old age and it appears difference between generations. The concept of raising sons for old age is chiefly changing into depending on themselves. But relying on their children and social security system are also important strategy to support their old age life. The situation of tripartite confrontation of farmers＂ tactics for old age life is taking initial shape. That is the welfare triangle framework including depend oneself, depend children and depend social security system.
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第6期40-50,共11页
Population Journal
基金
2012年度国家社会科学基金青年项目:新疆农村老龄人口贫困化研究(12CRK006)
2011年度教育部人文社会科学研究新疆项目:人口老龄化背景下新疆农(牧)民养老风险与保障策略研究(11XJJC840005)
教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大招标项目:社会安全应急机制建立的理论与实践研究(05JJD840145)
关键词
农民
“养儿防老”观念
代际差异
转变趋向
peasant, concept of raising sons for old age, difference between generations, change trend
