摘要
利用乌鲁木齐地区和周边9个气象站1961～2010年的逐月平均气温资料,采用线性趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检测方法,结合GIS空间分析技术,对乌鲁木齐地区4季和年平均气温的变化趋势、突变特征以及突变前后气温变化量进行了分析。结果表明:(1)乌鲁木齐地区年平均气温的空间分布总体呈"平原和谷地高,山区低"的格局,4季中春、夏、秋季的平均气温空间分布与年气温空间分布基本一致,但冬季气温分布格局较为独特,表现为"天山山区中山带高,高山带和中北部平原低"的特点;(2)近50 a乌鲁木齐地区4季和年平均气温呈显著的上升趋势;(3)突变监测表明,4季和年平均气温在不同年份发生了突变,突变前后变化量均为正值,呈上升趋势,但上升幅度具有明显的区域性差异。
Based on the monthly mean temperature data during 1961-2010 from 9 meteorological stations in Urumqi area of Xinjiang,the spatial-temporal change of seasonal and annual mean temperature and their abrupt change were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression,Mann-Kendall test and three-dimensional analysis based on GIS.The main results are as follows：（1） The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature in Urumqi presented higher in plain area than that in mountain areas,the spatial change of the mean temperature in spring,summer and autumn was consistent with annual mean temperature,but mean temperature in winter was higher on the level ranged from 1 500 m to 2 600 m of Tianshan Mountain than that in plain and high elevation of mountain areas;（2） The annual and seasonal mean temperature showed a significant increasing trend in recent 50 years in Urumqi area;（3）There were abrupt change for annual and seasonal mean temperature in different years,though the temperature trend was increasing,they were obviously different in different regions,generally,the increasing range of spring and annual mean temperature were higher in plain than that in mountain areas,but the increasing range of summer and autumn mean temperature was on the contrary,they were higher in mountain areas than that in plain,and increasing range of winter mean temperature was higher in urban than that in suburban areas.
出处
《干旱气象》
2012年第4期593-599,622,共8页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
新疆气象局科研项目(201127)资助
