摘要
滑坡的位移变化不仅与其地质环境有关,还取决于外界诱发因素的动态变化,如降雨和库水位变化。本文以白家包滑坡监测数据为依据,对滑坡诱发因素与滑坡位移变化之间的影响关系进行了综合分析,并选取月降雨量与库水响应滞后影响下的库水位月平均变化量为诱发因子,采用时间序列分析方法,通过构建差分自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,对该滑坡的位移进行了动态预测。结果表明:该模型可以较好地反映滑坡位移在外界诱发因素影响下的动态变化,可有效提高模型预测精度,且简单易行,为判断滑坡的动态变化提供了可靠的理论依据。
The displacement change of landslide is determined by dynamic changes of external inducing factors be- sides the basic geological conditions,such as rainfall and changes of reservoir water level. Baijiabao landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area is taken as an example. Rainfall and changes of reservoir water level in current month are selected as inducing factors,and the displacement prediction model of landslide is established by time series a nalysis and ARIMA model,based on comprehensive analysis of the relationship between displacement change and inducing factors. The results indicate that the prediction model can reflect the dynamic change of displacement under the influence of external inducing factors and improve the precision of prediction results effectively. Therefore, the method provides a reliable theoretical basis for predicting the dynamic characteristics of landslide.
出处
《安全与环境工程》
CAS
北大核心
2013年第1期26-29,35,共5页
Safety and Environmental Engineering
基金
国土资源部三峡库区三期地质灾害防治重大科学研究项目(SXKY3-3-2)
关键词
滑坡
位移预测
库水位滞后性
时间序列分析
ARIMA模型
landslide
displacement prediction
hysteresis quality o{ reservoir water level
time series analysis
AR1-MA model
