摘要
应用σ收敛与β收敛方法对兰州—西宁城镇密集区2000—2010年的经济发展状况进行收敛测算。从时间断面把握兰西城镇密集区经济收敛或发散趋势的同时,以人均GDP为指标,以县级行政区为研究单元,采用GIS空间分析技术,对近10年来兰西城镇密集区经济收敛或发散状况进行空间模拟,从时间和空间两个纬度分析兰西城镇密集区经济发展过程。结果表明:①兰西地区整体经济增长自2002后呈现出σ收敛趋势,但收敛速度较为缓慢。局部空间结构相对稳定,收敛较弱。②兰西城镇密集区县域经济发展存在微弱的绝对β收敛,且以每年2%的速度收敛。通过控制人口、城市化水平、人力资本、经济实力等内生变量,收敛性得到明显改善,条件β收敛在缩小兰西地区县域之间的经济发展差距上具有一定稳健性。③以劳均GDP为指标,从截面回归分析结果可判断,2000—2010年,兰西城镇密集区城市间经济同时存在新古典主义和新增长理论的收敛机制。
After the economic development convergence is computed by convergence and convergence method from 2000 to 2010 in Lanzhou-Xining city-and-town concentrated areas, it is simulated by using the spatial analysis of GIS while considering the trend of convergence or divergence from the time section. Economic convergence or di- vergence in the past 10 years is analyzed from spatio-temporal coupling perspective in Lanzhou-Xining city-and-town concentrated areas. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows：① A trend of convergence has been appeared in Lanzhou-Xining city-and-town concentrated areas since 2002, but the convergence speed is relatively slow. Local spatial structure is relatively stable, economic convergence is weak. ② Presence of absolute convergence is weak in Lanzhou-Xining city-and-town concentrated areas, and the convergence rate of 2% per year. Convergence is signif- icantly improved by controlling the population, level of urbanization, human capital, economic strength, and other endogenous variables, and the conditional convergence can effectively narrow the development gap between regional county of Lanzhou-Xining city-and-town concentrated areas. ③ Using GDP per labor force as an index, there are convergence mechanism of neo-classical and new growth theory judged from the cross-sectional regression analysis results from 2000 to 2010 in Lanzhou-Xining city-and-town concentrated areas.
出处
《地域研究与开发》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第1期18-23,共6页
Areal Research and Development
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41161028)
甘肃省属高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目
西北师范大学青年骨干项目(SKQNGG10028)
