摘要
文章利用东兴国家基本气象观测站1955-01-01～2010-12-31的逐日平均气温,采用气候统计方法,分析月平均、年平均、年代际平均取暖度日(HDD)和降温度日(CDD)的变化趋势,揭示在全球气候变暖背景下的度日温度对气候变化的响应,并探讨度日温度变化对耗能的影响。结果表明:月平均HDD集中在11～4月,峰值出现在1～2月;月平均CDD集中在5～10月,峰值出现在7～8月。HDD的多年变化为下降趋势,下降变化率为-21.8℃/10a;CDD的多年变化为上升趋势,上升变化率为22.3℃/10a。HDD、CDD和平均气温具有显著的相关性,相关系数均通过a=0.001的显著性检验。HDD与平均气温具有反相关变化趋势,CDD与平均气温具有正相关变化趋势,这种变化趋势随着气候变暖,HDD值将趋于减小,而CDD值将趋于增大,表明夏季制冷耗能将增加。
According to daily average temperature of national basic meteorological station in Dongxing from Jan. 1st, 1955 to Dec. 31th, 2010,the trend of average monthly and annual heating degree-day （HDD） and cooling degree-day （CDD） is analyzed by climate statistics. In the context of global warming, the impact of degree-day temperature on climate change is revealed, and the effect of degree- day temperature on the energy is also discussed. The results show that the average monthly HDD is concentrated from April to November with its peaks in January and February. The average monthly CDD is focused from May to October with its peaks in July and August. The HDD variation for many yeas presents downward trend that is opposite to CDD variation. The decreasing and increasing rate of HDD and CDD is --21.8 ℃ / 10a and 22. 3 ℃C / 10a respectively. It has a significant correlation among average temperature, HDD and CDD, whose correlation coefficients are all pass significance test a=0. 001. The relationship between HDD and average temperature shows negative correlation trend,while it presents positive correlation trend between CDD and the average temperature. This trend is influenced by climate warming with decreasing HDD value and increasing CDD value, which indicates that the cooling consumption in summer will be enhanced.
出处
《气象水文海洋仪器》
2013年第1期49-52,共4页
Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments
关键词
度日温度
气候变化
分析
degree-day temperature
climate change
analysis
