摘要
从经济发展规律来看,高新技术产品出口与技术创新具有高度的耦合关系。从技术创新资源配置总量、投入与产出三维角度研究技术创新与高新技术产品出口耦合协调性。采用因子分析法将衡量技术创新的多个变量进行数据浓缩,并通过自回归分布滞后模型、ECM模型和VAR模型等分析中国高新技术产品出口与技术创新的耦合适调程度。分析结果显示:无论从技术创新资源配置总量还是投入与产出角度来看,技术创新促进高技术产品出口增长方面还没有发挥应有的作用,同时,高新技术产品出口对技术创新的产业需求驱动作用也较弱,二者双边耦合强度不显著。并且相关技术创新资源变量所起的作用也存在很大差异,未来如果没有协调二者发展的制度或政策的介入,偏离趋势将进一步加剧。根据存在的问题,提出二者协调发展的对策。
From economy development rule, there is a high coupling relationship between export of high- tech products and technology innovation. This paper researches the coupling relation between technical innovation and high--tech products export from three--dimensional angle of innovation resources allocation gross, inputs and outputs. By the method of factor analysis to measure the technical innovation multiple variable data concentrated, and through the ADL, ECM model, VAR model analysis coupling adjustment degree of China＇s technical innovation and high--teeh products export. The analysis results show, from an overall point of view, technological innovation has not play a due role to promote high-- tech product export growth, at the same time, it is also weak that the export of high--tech products to drive technology innovation development, it is not significant that two bilateral coupling strength. And there has the very big difference that the role about related technical innovation resource variables. If there is not coordinate the development policy intervention, the trend deviation will be further intensified. According to existence questions, this paper puts forward development countermeasures.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
2013年第4期38-47,共10页
Journal of Statistics and Information
