摘要
为了分析苏南地区(苏州、无锡、常州、镇江和南京)工业化和城镇化在农业现代化进程中的促进作用,采用内生农业技术增长模型和门槛效应模型,研究了苏南地区工业化和城镇化在促进农业现代化进程中的门槛效应。结果表明,苏南地区工业化和城镇化对农业现代化的促进作用均具有一门槛效应。当工业化率和城镇化率跃过一门槛值时,对农业现代化的作用效果显著提升,尤其是工业化和城镇化较高的地区农业现代化进程也较快。通过对工业化率、城镇化率的计算及对农业现代化率的模拟预测发现,苏南地区城镇化进程相对滞后于工业化进程,而农业化进程相对落后于城镇化进程。因此,苏南地区工业化、城镇化和农业现代化"三化"同步的发展目标仍需加强统筹、协调。
To analyze the promotion of industrialization and urbanization in the process of agricultural modernization in southern Jiangsu, the threshold effects of industrialization and urbanization were studied by using endogenous agricultural technology growth models and threshold effect model. The results show that there is one threshold effect of industrialization and urbanization on the process of agricultural modernization in southern Jiangsu. When industrialization rate and urbanization rate jump over the threshold value, the promotion effect dustrialization and urbanization has a significant increase, and the higher the industrialization rate, and urbanization rate, the faster the agricuhural modernization process. By calculating industrialization rate and urbanization rate and simulating the agricultural modernization rate , it is found that the urbanization process lagged behind the process of industrialization, and the agricultural modernization lagged behind the process of urbanization in southern Jiangsu. Therefore, it＇ s nessary to strengthen planning and coordination to achieve the harmonious development of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in southern Jiangsu.
出处
《江苏农业学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期421-428,共8页
Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences
基金
江苏省农业委员会农业资源区划办科研项目(5111228)
关键词
苏南地区
农业现代化
门槛效应
southern of Jiangsu
agricultural modernization
threshold effect
