摘要
实现产业升级是中国实现发展方式转变的重要内容,但要有效地完成这一任务,就需要发现潜在的比较优势产业。本文以最新全球产品贸易数据库为基础,对比较优势演化理论的产品空间的异质性前提进行了验证,分析了中国和全球多数国家的产品空间演化。文章运用产品空间理论对中国近期的潜在优势产业进行了预测,对不同邻近性阈值条件下产业的演化轨迹进行了充分讨论。其基本结论是,中国产业升级的能力是有限的,当期具有比较优势的产业种类和近期具有潜在比较优势的产业种类虽然高于全球平均水平,但长期看,具有潜在比较优势的产业种类总数却小于全球平均水平,潜在比较优势产业演进的可持续性并不比全球平均水平高;在产业升级过程中,中国面临两难选择,产业升级的步伐如果过快,对当期的经济增长就会造成冲击,如果过慢则无法维持可持续的经济增长。考虑到中国产业升级能力的特性,实现产业结构调整和产业升级的最佳策略,就是要充分发挥中国产业多样化的优势,发挥组合效应,实现包容性升级。
Achieving industrial upgrading is an important aspect of China＇s transformation of development mode, but in order to effectively accomplish this task, it＇s necessary to find what will be potential comparative advantageous industries. Based on the latest global trade database, this paper further tests the proposition on heterogeneity of product space provided by comparative advantage evolution theory, provides analysis of the evolution of China＇s and most of other countries＇ product space. Based on product space theory, China＇s recent potential comparative advantageous industries are predicted and evolution track of industries conditioned on different proximity threshold are discussed. It＇s found that China＇s upgrading ability is limited. The amount of China＇s comparative advantageous industries and potential comparative advantageous industries in the near future is more than that of the global on average, but considering the long-term situation, the amount of potential comparative advantageous industries, the sustainability of potential comparative advantageous industrial evolution are fewer than those of the global on average. The dilemma that China faces in industrial upgrading is, too big pace for industrial upgrading will give serious shocks on the current economic growth, too small pace to maintain sustainable economic growth. Considering that China＇s industrial upgrading capability, the best strategy to realize the adjustment of industrial structure and industrial upgrading is the inclusive upgrading, to give full play to the advantages of Chinese industrial diversification and portfolio effects.
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第5期44-56,共13页
China Industrial Economics
基金
中国社会科学院创新工程项目"工业经济运行监测与风险评估研究"
国家社会科学基金重大项目"产业竞争优势转型战略与全球分工模式的演变"(批准号098&ZD035)
关键词
包容性产业升级
潜在比较优势产业
产品空间
inclusive upgrading of industry
potential comparative advantageous industry
product space
