摘要
以黄河最大的一级支流渭河为研究对象,根据渭河流域华县水文站1958—2011年径流资料,采用Mann—Kendall趋势检验、Pettitt非参数统计和双累积曲线法分析径流序列的变化趋势和突变点,同时采用水量平衡法定量分析气候变化和人类活动对径流量的影响。结果表明:1)华县水文站径流量呈显著下降趋势(标准正态统计变量<-2.23),年均递减系数为0.86 mm/a;2)径流量自1994年呈显著性减少趋势,据此将径流序列划分为2个阶段,即基准期1958—1994年和变化期1995—2011年;3)变化期较基准期在枯水年、平水年和丰水年径流量分别下降64.6%、41.3%和45.5%,枯水年流量下降趋势最为明显;4)华县站以上控制区内降雨变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为49.0%和51.0%,气候变化对渭河径流量的影响主要是由降水量的减少引起的。
Research was conducted in a tributary of the Yellow River, Wei River. Streamflow at Huaxian station during the period of 1958 -2011 were applied to identify the trends and abrupt changes by using Mann-Kendall test, non-parametric Pettitt test and double mass curve analysis in the Wei River basin. The simple water balance model was employed to quantify the effects of climate variability and human activities on streamflow. Results show that 1 ） a remarkable decrease trend in annual streamflow were detected with the rate of 0.86 mm/a. 2） an abrupt change was identified in 1994. The streamflow time series were then divided into two periods, i. e., the baseline period （1958 -1994） and the changed period （1995 -2011 ）. 3） Streamflow during the changed period decreased by 64.6%, 41.3% and 45.5% in dry year, normal year and wet year, respectively. 4） In the controlled region of Huaxian station, it was found that precipitation variability and human activities accounted for about 49.0% and 51.0% of the change in streamflow. Additionally, the effect of climate change on streamflow was mostly caused by precipitation decrease in the Wei River basin.
出处
《中国水土保持科学》
CSCD
2013年第2期33-38,共6页
Science of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
中国科学院重点部署项目"黄土高原及周边沙地近代生态环境的演变与可持续性"(KZZD-EW-04)
国家自然科学基金"延河流域水沙变化及其对退耕还林(草)的响应"(41271295)
"皇甫川流域泥沙来源的复合指纹示踪研究"(41201266)
关键词
降水
潜在蒸散发
径流
气候变化
人类活动
渭河流域
precipitation
potential evapotranspiration
streamflow
climate change
human activity
Wei River Basin
