摘要
本文选取1996年1月至2011年4月中日韩美四国宏观经济景气指数分别建立四国模型和三国模型进行实证分析。研究发现:(1)从经济相关性的角度,中日韩区域经济一体化互惠互利,可行性较强;(2)在样本区间内,中国因素对日韩经济波动的解释力度均大于美国因素,日韩同中国加强合作关系有益于其增长;(3)美国因素对中日韩三国一致指数均有较为显著的解释率,其经济下行往往会给中日韩三国造成巨大危害,在全球经济不景气的后金融危机时代,中日韩更应通过加强区域经济合作,减小经济风险,促进经济发展。最后本文从贸易和投资方面分析了三国当前经济合作呈现出的特点和不足,并根据我国实际情况结合本文结论提出了相关建议。
This paper, selecting macro-economic sentiment index of China, Japan, South Korea and the U.S. as variables, and establishes four countries model and three coun- tries model with data series from January 1996 to April 2011. It shows that： （1） Re- gional economic integration of China, Japan and South Korea is mutual benefit; （2） Chi- na factors seem to contribute more influence on the economic fluctuations in Japan and South Korea than U.S. factors, strengthening cooperation among Japan, South Korea and China would be conductive to the economic growth of Japan and South Korea; （3） U.S. economy downturn would do great harm to China, Japan and South Korea. After the financial crisis, China, Japan and South Korea should strengthen regional economic cooperation to reduce the economic risks and promote economic development. Finally, it argues the characteristics and shortcomings of the three countries＇ economic coopera- tion, brings forward relative countermeasures.
出处
《华中师范大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期41-50,共10页
Journal of Central China Normal University:Humanities and Social Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"中国货币政策和金融稳定性研究"(10CJL015)
教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目"经济波动与中国减排政策设计--基于动态随机一般均衡模型的视角"(10YJC630118)
关键词
中日韩FTA
景气指数
VEC模型
China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Zone
climate index
VEC model
