摘要
我国应急预案体系是由不同层级、不同类型预案组成的预案网络。为更好地完善预案体系,寻求预案体系的最佳演化模式,从预案编制角度出发,提取驱动预案编制的两种模式:基于行政级别高低的有序模式和基于实际编制需求的无序模式。采用复杂网络的方法,考虑预案之间的相互参阅关系,构建预案体系的有序和无序演化模型并进行仿真分析。结果表明,预案体系的层级结构中存在明显的无标度特性,与有序演化模型相比,基于实际需求的无序演化模型中预案之间的等级差异性较小,大多数预案都共同影响整个预案体系的有效运行,而不仅仅依赖高层级预案,使得预案体系的稳定性更强,更有利于预案体系的长期有效运行。
The emergency planning system in China is an emergency plan network which consists of the different levels and different types of plans. To improve the emergency planning system and seek its best evolution mode, this paper, according to the establishment of emergency plans, extracts the ordered mode based on the administrative ranking and the disordered mode based on local demand that drive the establishment of the emergency plan are extracted. Considering the reference relationship between emergency plans, the ordered and disordered evolving network models of emergency planning system are proposed based on complex network. The simulation results indicate that the hierarchical structure of the emergency planning system exhibits scale-free property. Compared to the ordered evolving model, the emergency plans in the disordered evolving model which according to the actual needs have smaller individual differences, and the operation of the emergency planning system is affected by most emergency plans, not only depend on the high-level emergency plans. The disordered evolving model makes the emergency planning system more stability and more long-term effectively.
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第3期80-86,共7页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(91024003)
国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成平台项目(91024031)
关键词
预案体系
预案编制
复杂网络
演化模型
Emergency Planning System
Establishment of the Emergency Plan
Complex Network
Evolving Networks Model
