摘要
目的通过分析气象要素与变应性鼻炎（allergic rhinitis，AR）患者发病时间的相关性，建立AR发病情况的预报方法。方法根据首都医科大学附属北京同仁医院2007--2010年AR患者的临床检查结果和北京市专业气象台的气象要素资料，研究AR患者平均发病时间与同期气象要素的相关关系。通过分析AR患者发病时间的概率分布，确立AR发病趋势的指数等级。采用SPSS16．0统计软件进行数据分析。结果各类变应原敏感的AR患者发病的高峰主要集中在8月中下旬。AR患者发病时间与平均气温和水汽压等气象要素有明显相关性（r=0．7473，F=206．13；r=0．8465，F=321．04，P值均〈0．001），气温和水汽压的年高峰早于AR患者发病高峰1个月。根据以上相关性可以建立AR发病趋势非线性预报方程；应用概率分级方法，将AR发病趋势指数划分4个等级，指数等级越高，发病人数越多。结论根据气象要素分等级预报AR患者发病趋势的方法，对于AR的诊断和预防有重要的参考价值。
Objective To analyze the correlation between meteorological factors and onset of allergic rhinitis （ AR）, and to establish the prediction of AR epideminlogical trend. Methods According to skin prick test （SPT） data of AR from Beijing Tongren Hospital and meteorological data of Beijing Observatory （2007- 2010）, analyzed the relationship between meteorological factors and onset in patients with AR. To analyze the probability distribution of onset in AR patients, and establish the grade of AR epideminlogical trend index. SPSS 16.0 software was used to analyze the data. Results The peak of onset in patients with AR appeared in 15 - 30 th August. There was significant correlation between the onset of AR patients and air temperature and vapor pressure（r = 0. 7473, F = 206. 13 ; r = 0. 8465, F = 321.04 ; all P 〈 0. 001 ）, and the peak of air temperature and vapor pressure were one month earlier than the peak of onset AR patients in 4 years. According to the above correlation, nonlinear prediction models of AR were established; used probability grading method, onset index of AR was divided into 4 grades. Conclusion Index grade forecast of AR onset has important guiding significance for AR diagnosis and prophylaxis, offers objective reference information for health departments.
出处
《中华耳鼻咽喉头颈外科杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第7期539-543,共5页
Chinese Journal of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery
基金
基金项目：上海市科学技术委员会气象与健康课题（11DZ2260900）
关键词
季节性
鼻炎
变应性
常年性
气象因素
概率
一级预防
Rhinitis, allergic, seasonal
Rhinitis, allergic perennial
Meteorological factors
Probability
Primary prevention
