摘要
微电网技术是推动可再生能源开发与利用的有效途径。风力发电是微电网中的重要发电单元,风电的随机性严重影响微电网的运行特性,对微电网潮流的直接预测可以减轻风电随机性对微电网的不利影响。先建立了自适应支持向量机模型,对微电网潮流进行确定性预测,再将马尔科夫链模型和蒙特卡罗模拟方法相结合,对并网和离网2种运行状态下微电网概率潮流进行预测。仿真结果表明,所提方法不仅能够较准确地预测微电网潮流,还能从概率的角度对预测结果所包含的风险进行评估。所得结论为进一步分析和优化系统运行提供了理论依据。
The technology of micro-grid is an effective approach to promote the development and utilization of renewable energy.Wind generation is an important unit of a micro-grid,and its randomness has a great influence on operation characteristic of a micro-grid.The direct power flow forecasting of a micro-grid can reduce the adverse impact caused by wind power randomness.Based on the deterministic power flow forecasting by adaptive support vector machine model,Markov process and Monte Carlo simulation method are combined together to carry out probabilistic forecasting of power flow under the grid-connection and off-grid operation modes.The simulation results show that the proposed approach can accurately forecast the power flow of the micro-grid and assess the risks contained in forecasting results from the perspective of probability.The conclusions provide a theoretical basis for further analyzing and optimizing system operation.
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第22期26-34,7,共9页
Proceedings of the CSEE
基金
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2009CB219708)
国家自然科学基金项目(51077033
50837001)~~
关键词
微电网
潮流预测
马尔科夫链
蒙特卡罗模拟
概率潮流
置信区间
micro-grid
power flow forecasting
Markov process
Monte Carlo simulation
probabilistic power flow
confidence interval
