摘要
目的探讨重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病数随时间的变化规律,为控制和预防肺结核提供科学依据。方法采用SPSS13.0软件对2005～2009年重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病数资料建立ARIMA模型,利用该模型预测2010年1月～12月的涂阳肺结核月发病数,对模型的短期预测及其效果进行初步评价。结果建立的ARIMA(1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12模型是拟合重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病数的合适模型,2005～2009年观测值落在拟合值95%的可信区间内,2010年预测值的平均相对误差为6.31%。结论 ARIMA(1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12模型能很好地预测重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病情况,为控制和预防肺结核提供了可靠依据。
Objective To investigate the variation of the monthly incidence of smeavpositive tuberculosis with time in Chongqing, so to provide a scientific evidence for the control and prevention of tuberculosis. Methods Using the SPSS 13.0 software, we established an ARIMA model with the monthly incidence data of smear-positive tuberculosis （2005-2009）, and the model was used to forecast the monthly incidence of Jan. 2010 to Dec. 2010. The short-term forecasting efficacy was evaluated. Results The established ARIMA （1,1,0）× （0,1,1）12 model was suitable for forecasting the monthly incidence of smear- positive tuberculosis in Chongqing. The observed values of 2005 2009 were in the 95 % confidence interval of the fitted values, and the average relative error of the predictive value was 6.31% for 2010. Conclusion ARIMA （1,1,0） × （0,1,1）12 model can satisfactorily forecast the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Chongqing, which provides a reliable evidence for control and prevention of tuberculosis.
出处
《第二军医大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第9期980-984,共5页
Academic Journal of Second Military Medical University
基金
国家自然科学基金(30872160)
重庆市科委自然科学基金(CSTC
2009BB5415)~~
关键词
ARIMA模型
肺结核
预测
发病率
ARIMA model
pulmonary tuberculosis
forecasting
incidence
