摘要
利用1961-2010年华东地区88个气象站逐日降水资料，采用趋势分析和突变检测等方法，研究了华东地区年、季、月雨日和降水量的时空变化特征。结果表明，华东地区年雨日和年降水量的长期趋势变化几乎相反，年雨日普遍减少（区域平均气候倾向率为-2．3（L／（10a）），而年降水量除山东省外却普遍增加，反映年平均的日降水强度增加。季雨日与季降水量的长期变化较一致，秋季最相似；春季、秋季雨日和降水量都是大范围负趋势，但雨日的负趋势比降水量的范围更广、强度更大；夏季、冬季降水量在山东省呈减少趋势，在其他地区呈增加趋势，其中长三角地区夏季及江淮流域冬季的降水增加显著，而雨日在山东和福建是负趋势，其他地区为正趋势。年雨日在山东中东部、福建北部减少最多，这些地区一年四季雨日都是减少趋势，平均每10a减少3～5d。山东半岛年雨日在20世纪70年代末期发生突变，此后年雨日明显减少。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 88 stations in East China during 1961--2010 the tem- poral and spatial variation characteristics of yearly, seasonal, and monthly rainfall and rainy days in East China are investigated by using statistical diagnostic methods such as trend analysis and abrupt change detection. Results show that the secular trend variation of yearly rainy days is contrary to that of yearly rainfall in East China. The yearly rainy days decrease （ regional averaged climate trend rate is - 2.3 d/（ 10 a） ）, while yearly rainfall increases in East China except in Shandong Province, showing that the intensity of yearly mean daily precipitation increases. The trend variation of seasonal rainy days is com- paratively consistent with that of seasonal rainfall, especially in autumn. The negative trend variations of rainfall and rainy days in spring and autumn cover most of East China, but the negative trend variation of rainy days cover larger areas with greater intensity compared with rainfall. The trend variations of rainfall in East China except in Shandong Province in summer and winter are positive, especially in the Yangtze River Delta Region in summer and in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers in winter. The trend variations of rainy days in East China in summer and winter are positive, except in Shandong and Fujian provinces. The largest reduction of yearly rainy days covers the middle and eastern Shandong province and thenorthern Fujian province, and the trend of rainy days in the two areas reduces with 3--5 d/（ 10 a）. The abrupt change of yearly rainy days in Shandong Peninsula appears in the late 1970s. After that time,the yearly rainy days reduce clearly.
出处
《大气科学学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第4期426-433,共8页
Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(31100359)
江苏省"青蓝工程"
南京市留学人员资助项目
浙江省科技厅重点农业项目(2011C22082)
关键词
华东地区
雨日
降水量
趋势系数
East China
rainy days
rainfall
trend coefficient
