摘要
文章基于中国31个主要城市1996-2011年温度、相对湿度和降水量数据，对气候变化特征进行了空间分析。结果发现，中国气候特征的空间相关性和差异性显著，自1996年以来，气候变化经历“低-高-低-高”运行周期，周期较短，气候变化波动剧烈，且出现1999、2004、2009年3个结构性气候变点；受温度和相对湿度影响，中国东北、西北、西南、华南地区气候效率逐年下滑，气候变化处于不良阶段，华北和东南沿海地区气候效率稳步提高，气候系统有效运行。温室效应逐年加剧，整体增长约7．02％。寒季加剧严重，强度增加约12．69％，暖季加剧程度较为温和，增加约2．03％。因此，合理控制温室气体排放，有效利用和配置资源的时空分布，将是中国人口、经济、生态可持续发展的一条合理路径。
Based on the temperature,relative humidity and precipitation data of 31 provinces of China's Mainland in 1996-2011,spatial panel model was used in this paper for the spatial analysis of climate change.The empirical results show that,the spatial correlation and the differences of the climate change in China are remarkable.Since 1996,the climate change has suffered a 'low-high-low-high' running cycle,and the volatile of climate change has been intensive with short cycles.There existed three structural points of climate change,namely year 1999,2004 and 2009.Affected by the temperature and relative humidity,in the northeast,northwest,southwest and south China climate efficiency has declined year by year,and the climate change has been in a bad cycle.In North China and the southeast coastal area climate efficiency have improved steadily,and the operation of the climate system is efficient.Greenhouse effect has increased year by year,and the overall growth is about 7.02%.Cold seasons exacerbate the greenhouse effect,and its intensity increases by about 12.69%.Warm seasons exacerbate moderately with an increasing rate around 2.03%.Therefore,reasonable control of human activities,effective allocation of the temporal and spatial distribution of resources will be a sound path for China's climate change.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第5期117-125,128,共9页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
山东省统计科研课题"气候变化特征的空间统计分析"(项目编号:KT13099)阶段性成果
