摘要
危险区域会威胁飞机运行安全并导致航班延误。准确计算飞机侵入危险区域概率,并据以实施管制策略,是保障飞机安全、高效运行的重要手段。针对航路飞行阶段多个危险区域,应用随机可达性理论,通过构造马尔科夫近似求解模型,提出飞机侵入多个危险区域概率的计算方法。以空域中多航段、多危险区域为示例,采用Matlab进行仿真计算,求解危险区域的概率分布。结果表明,该方法能够描述概率分布情况,且随位置变化,概率分布呈动态变化趋势,根据此方法,管制员可以及时掌握空域安全状况。
Dangerous areas surrounding en-route affect aircraft operational safety and are the leading cause of flight delay.In order to ensure operation safety and efficiency,the controller needs to know the probability that the aircraft intrudes the areas accurately and to make decision.In this paper,based on stochastic reachability theory and Markov chain approximate solving method,a novel algorithm that can help to calculate the intrusion probability into dangerous areas during en-route operation was proposed.Considering the multiple flight segments and different dangerous areas,the authors calculate the whole intrusion probability during en-route operation in Matlab.The results show that the proposed algorithm has the ability to figure out the distribution of intrusion probability efficiently.The authors also found the distribution varying dynamically according to aircraft location.Anyway,depending on the method,the controller could know well about the en-route operation safety situation in time.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第7期8-12,共5页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
中国民航大学科研启动基金资助(2012QD02X)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(3122013P008
ZXH2012N004)
关键词
民航安全
危险区域
随机可达性
网格化
概率分布
civil aviation safety
dangerous area
stochastic reachability
grid
probability distribution
