摘要
近年来,鄱阳湖区低水位提前且持续时间延长,河湖水位不断突破历史最低值,对鄱阳湖湿地生态系统健康造成不利影响.鄱阳湖入湖总水量与鄱阳湖水位及旱涝变化密切相关,分析其趋势及周期规律对鄱阳湖生态系统保护具有重要意义.利用1959—2009年鄱阳湖逐日入湖总水量实测资料,采用线性回归分析、Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验、滑动平均法和小波分析方法分析了鄱阳湖年入湖总水量的变化趋势,最后,采用旱涝急转指数分析了鄱阳湖4—7月的旱涝急转规律.研究表明,鄱阳湖年入湖总水量序列无明显趋势变化;小波分析和小波方差分析表明鄱阳湖年入湖总水量存在19年的主周期,且1—3月、4—6月、7—9月和10—12月不同季节的入湖总水量则分别存在31、19、17、14年的主周期,而四个季节入湖总水量的主周期共同决定着年入湖总水量的主周期;基于鄱阳湖入湖总水量的变化分析,应用长周期旱涝急转指数研究旱涝急转规律.结果表明,在4—5月与6—7月之间,鄱阳湖在长时期内存在旱转涝和涝转旱的交替循环过程,且进入21世纪以来旱转涝和涝转旱的间隔年份不断缩短,表明鄱阳湖流域"旱涝"和"涝旱"转换越来越频繁.
In recent years, the low water level in Poyang Lake appeared earlier and lasted longer than before, and it continued to break the recorded historic lowest value, which caused the disadvantageous influence on the health of the total runoff into Poyang Lake is closely related wetland ecological system in Poyang lake. The with the water level change and drought-flood alternation, so the study on the variation and periodic law of the total runoff into Poyang Lake plays an important role in the protection of ecological system in Poyang Lake basin. Based on the daily time series of the total runoff into Poyang Lake from 1959 to 2009 ,the variation trends of the total runoff into Poyang Lake was analyzed by the linear regression analysis,the methods of the Mann-Kendall and the moving average. The results show Poyang Lake has a non-significant upward trend. The wavelet first main 19-yearly period in the annually total runoff time that the annually total runoff into analysis shows that there is the series. And the seasonally totalrunoff time series, divided into four seasonal time intervals, Jan to Mar, Apr to Jun, Jul to Sep and Oct to Dec ,have several main time scales of periods with 31,19,17 and ld-yearly main periods. It is concluded that the 19-yearly main period of the annually total runoff time series is determined by the combination of the main periods of the four seasonally total runoff time series. Based on the analysis of the variation of the total runoff into Poyang Lake, the drought- flood abrupt alternation was analyzed by using the Long-cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Index （LDFAI）. The results show that the alternating cycle from drought to flood and from flood to drought exists between Apr to May and Jun to Jul in the long term. And into 21st century,the interval from drought to flood and from flood to drought is becoming shorter and shorter, which means the oscillation of the alternation of drought-flood is intensified.
出处
《应用基础与工程科学学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第5期845-856,共12页
Journal of Basic Science and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71073115)
江西省水利厅科技项目(KT201019)
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201101041)
关键词
鄱阳湖
入湖总水量
旱涝急转
趋势分析
i长周期旱涝急转指数
Poyang Lake
total runoff into the lake
drought-flood abrupt alternation
trendanalysis
long-cycle drought-flood abrupt ahemation index （LDFAI）
