摘要
为分析飞行异常情况下飞行员应急操作的可靠性,基于不确定理论(UT)和认知可靠性和失误分析方法(CREAM)建立飞行应急操作可靠性分析模型。利用基元事件分析方法,分析应急操作中的飞行员的认知行为,确定任务中相应的失效模式。同时,运用UT的不确定分布来修正CREAM中人的常模基本失误概率。最后,利用可靠性串联和并联原理,来评价飞行员应急操作的可靠性。结果表明,该模型的计算能够量化飞行员应急操作可靠性,能采集和丰富民航人为因素方面的基本数据。
To analyze reliability of pilot emergency operations when the flight abnormal situation occurs, an analysis model of flight emergency operation reliability is built based on UT and CREAM model. Using the elementary event analysis method , the cognitive behavior of pilots conducting emergency operations was analyzed, and their corresponding failure modes were identified. Moreover, basic norm error probabil- ity in CREAM was revised by using uncertainty distribution of UT. Finally, the pilot emergency operation reliability is evaluated by using reliability principles of series and parallel. Through the calculation of the model, the pilot emergency operation reliability can be quantified, at the same time, a new idea was put forward for acquisition of basic data on civil aviation human factors aspects.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第10期56-62,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
中航工业产学研基金资助(2010CB734105)
中央高校基本科研项目(ZXH2013K008)
