摘要
根据1961-2012年四川省40个气象站点的逐月气温和降水资料,采用线性回归、反距离加权空间插值(IDW)、Z指数法和Morlet小波变换等方法分析了近52a来四川省气候变化特征与川西高原、川西南山地和川东盆地3个地貌单元的旱涝灾害区域响应。结果表明:近52a来四川省气温以0.17℃/10a的速率增加,降水量以9.03mm/10a的速率减少,全省气候表现出明显的暖干化趋势。从区域变化看,川西高原气温升高,降水量增加,气候呈暖湿变化趋势,而川西南山地与川东盆地气温升高,降水量减少,气候暖干化趋势明显。四川省3个区域旱涝灾害对气候变化具有不同的响应,川西地区旱涝灾害对暖湿气候的响应表现为向偏涝趋势发展,1990年以前旱涝灾害频次较少,发生周期长,偏旱,1990年以来旱涝灾害的频率与灾害程度均呈加剧趋势,偏涝;川西南和川东地区气候暖干化直接导致了旱灾频率增加,干旱化趋势明显,川西南山地2000年以前偏涝,2000年以后偏旱,川东地区1990年以前旱涝灾害频繁,1990年开始涝灾减弱,旱灾的频率与程度均呈明显加强态势。
Based on temperature and rainfall data from 1961-2012 collected trom 4U meteorological sites in Sichuan, climate change characteristics and drought-flood regional responses of the Western Sichuan Plateau, Southwest Mountains and Sichuan Basin were analyzed using linear regression, inverse distance weighted spatial interpolation, the Z index and Morlet wavelet. We found that the temperature warming rate was 0.17℃/10a in the last 52 years in Sichuan. Precipitation shows a decreasing trend at the rate of 9.03 mm/10a; a climatic warming and drying trend was apparent. The temperature rose and precipitation increased in the Western Sichuan Plateau where a climatic warming and wetting trend was apparent. The temperature rose and precipitation decreased in the Southwest Mountains and Sichuan Basin where a climatic warming and drying trend was apparent. Drought and flood disasters of the three regions had different responses to climate change. There was a drought to waterlogging trend in response to a warming and wet climate in the Western Sichuan Plateau, the frequency of droughts and floods was low, and the cycle of droughts and floods was long, it was drought before 1900;the frequency and intensity of droughts and floods was serious and more waterlogging occurred after 1990. The warming and drying climate resulted in exacerbated drought in the Southwest Mountains and Sichuan Basin where the drought trend is obvious. The trend was waterlogging before 2000 and drought after 2000 for the Southwest Mountains of Sichuan. Drought and flood disasters were frequent before 1990, wateflogging was significantly reduced after 1990 in Sichuan Basin, and the intensity and frequency of drought was strengthened.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第12期2491-2500,共10页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目:"部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性:结构
机理与适应对策"(编号:41171090)
