摘要
本文从投入产出理论出发,在消费和出口产品结构刚性的前提下,以投资作为调整对象,构建了产业结构调整的动态投入产出模型;综合运用回归分析和最优化技术预测了2020年的消费产品结构,结合出口产品结构的预测,给出了不同的消费率和出口率组合下,经济均衡增长的增长率以及对应的均衡产业结构,并根据均衡产业结构计算了高、中、低GDP目标下2020年的生产能耗和生产碳排放。结果表明:虽然城乡居民的新一轮消费结构升级有加剧中国重工业化的趋势,不利于低碳产业结构调整,但消费率的提高依然会使得产业结构向低碳方向演进:如果能源结构和各部门的单位产品能耗保持在2005年的水平,仅仅依靠产业结构调整,可使2020年生产能耗减少17.6488亿—25.3144亿吨标煤,二氧化碳排放量减少39.3137亿—56.3893亿吨,使生产能源强度和生产碳排放强度下降25.5600%—31.0102%,产业结构调整对实现中国碳强度目标的贡献最高可达60%左右。
First of all, this paper constructs the input-output dynamic model of industrial structural adjustment on the premise of consumption and exports structure rigidity. Then we use the regression model and linear programming technique to predict the structure of consumer products in 2020. Combined with the prediction of the structure of export products, we give the growth rate of economic equilibrium under different final demand structure and calculate the carbon emissions in 2020 under different economic growth rate according to the balanced industry structure. The results show that although the new round upgrade of urban and rural residents consumption structure has intensified the trend of China＇s heavy industrialization, it is not conducive to low-carbon industrial structure adjustment, but the increase of consumption rate will make the evolution of industrial structure in the direction of low carbon. If the energy structure and technology remain unchanged as 2005, relying only on industrial structural adjustment,it can reduce energy consumption of 1.76488 billion tons--2.53144 billion tce and carbon dioxide emissions by 3.93137 billion tons--5.63893 billion tons. And it can make the energy consumption and carbon emission of production per GDP decreased by 25.5600%--31.0102%. The contribution of industrial structural adjustment to the targets of China＇s carbon intensity will run up to 60%.
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第1期44-56,共13页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目"我国碳排放总量确定
指标分配
实现路径机制设计综合研究"(批准号10AJY002)
北京市属高等学校高层次人才引进与培养"长城学者"计划资助项目"碳排放与博弈计量研究"
云南省哲学社会科学项目"云南省碳足迹核算
影响因素及减排策略研究"
关键词
产业结构
最终需求结构
均衡增长
碳排放
industrial structure
the final demand structure
balanced growth
carbon emission
