摘要
针对水库诱发地震孕育和发生过程中的不确定性,将水库诱发地震总体组合环境条件作为一个模糊系统,构建了包括评语层、指标层、因子层和状态层等多个层次的水库诱发地震风险评价指标体系。在对其风险从下往上逐层进行权重计算和模糊映射时,考虑到重要性标度和隶属度确定容易受个人经验和主观因素影响,提出了基于云模型改进的水库诱发地震风险多级模糊综合评价方法。通过建立水库诱发地震风险评语集云模型、诱震因子权重云模型和隶属度云模型以及综合评价结果云模型,利用云模型的期望、熵和超熵3个数字特征,将模糊性、随机性和离散性有机地结合起来,实现了不确定性语言与定量数值之间的自然转换。最后,应用云模型改进的方法,对长江三峡水库的诱发地震风险进行了多级模糊综合评价实验,极大地提高了评价结果的鲁棒性和可视化。
Reservoir-induced earthquake is one of the most important tasks in the geological analysis and environmental assessment of water conservancy project. Because of the uncertainties in the process of its preparation and occurrence, the reservoir-induced earthquake is considered as a fuzzy system in this paper. After systematical identification, an evaluation index system of reservoir-induced seismic risk, which is di-vided into such levels as remark layer, indicator layer, factor layer and status layer, is established. In the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the importance scale and membership degree of indices are easi-ly impacted by personal experience and subjective consciousness during the weights calculation and fuzzy mapping. By introducing the cloud model, we propose an improved approach for multi-hierarchy fuzzy com-prehensive evaluation of reservoir-induced seismic risk so as to solve this problem. The corresponding cloud models of remark set,weight and membership degree of index,as well as the cloud model of evaluation re-sult of reservoir-induced seismic risk are built respectively. With the three numeric characteristics of cloud model such as expectation value （Ex）, entropy （En） and hyper entropy （He）, the fuzziness, randomicity and discreteness in reservoir-induced earthquake are organically combined together, and the uncertain lan-guages are naturally transformed into quantitative values. Finally, as a case study, the proposed method is applied to the seismic risk evaluation of the Three Gorges reservoir on the Yangtze River. It’s concluded that the robustness and visualization of multi-hierarchy fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of reservoir induced earthquake risk based on the cloud model are highly increased.
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第1期87-95,共9页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41072199
41101258)
湖北省杰出青年科学基金资助项目(2008CDB364)
关键词
水库诱发地震
模糊综合评价
云模型
层次分析法
风险评价
不确定性
三峡水库
reservoir-induced seismicity
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
cloud model
analytic hierarchy process
risk assessment
uncertainty
Three Gorges reservoir
