摘要
针对仿真系统本身的复杂性以及评估专家认识和判断的不确定性、不完全性,以D-S证据推理理论为基础,提出了基于改进型证据推理的仿真系统的可信性评估方法。首先阐述了D-S证据推理的相关理论和合成规则;论述了基于改进证据推理的可信性评估,并在此基础上结合模糊层次分析法(FAHP),分析说明了改进D-S证据推理可信性评估方法的基本步骤;最后以拦截武器仿真系统为例,进行可信性综合评估。结果表明,新方法是合理可行的。
To deal with the uncertain and incomplete information in credibility evaluation effectively, this paper presented a methodology of simulation credibility evaluation based on improved D-S evidential reasoning. Firstly, the related theory and synthesis rules of the traditional evidential reasoning were introduced briefly; furthermore, based on this point, combined with the fuzzy AHP, the steps of the improved method about evidential reasoning were analyzed; finally, the method was applied to credibility evaluation of an interception weapon simulation system. The evaluation results show the reasonability and validity of the proposed approach.
出处
《计算机仿真》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第3期96-99,共4页
Computer Simulation
基金
航空科学基金资助项目(20120469801)
关键词
证据推理
模糊层次分析法
模型
可信性评估
Evidential reasoning
Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process
Model
Credibility evaluation
