摘要
运用指数平滑法、自回归分析法、移动平均分析法、自回归移动平均法对1962-2003年期间海南农垦橡胶树白粉病的病情指数进行预测,并对这4种方法研究结果进行比较。结果表明,4种分析方法均能较好地预测橡胶白粉病的发生趋势,但自回归移动平均法的预测效果较好。因此可以利用时间序列分析法预测橡胶白粉病。
Disease index of rubber tree powdery mildew in Hainan State Farms during 1962-2003 was predicted using 4 time series analysis methods including exponential smoothing （ES）,autoregressive （AR）,moving average （MA） and autoregressive and moving average （ARMA）.The forecasting effects of these four methods were compared.The results showed that the occurrence trend of rubber tree powdery mildew can be preferably fitted by the 4 methods,and ARMA had the fittest predicting effect.Therefore,time series analysis can be used for rubber tree powdery mildew forecasting.
出处
《植物保护》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第2期81-84,共4页
Plant Protection
基金
中央级科研院所基本科研业务费专项(No.2013hzs1J004)
海南大学"211工程"建设项目
关键词
橡胶白粉病
病情指数
时间序列分析
rubber tree powdery mildew
disease index
time series analysis
