摘要
本文在动态随机一般均衡框架下,利用贝叶斯和方差分解的方法对我国财政规则的存在性进行检验,并分析其效果,得到的主要结论为:(1)完全规则或完全相机决策的财政政策调整方式在我国并不存在,但规则性确实可以对我国财政政策起到重要解释作用,规则性解释了政府投资变动的大部分,间接税有效税率变动的约50%,以及政府一般性支出和直接税有效税率变动的一部分。(2)国外假设财政规则为财政政策依据产出缺口和政府债务规模调整的情形不能最好地切合我国实际,本文发现财政政策依据产出缺口和政府赤字调整的财政规则更切合我国实际情况。(3)财政规则具有政府界别特征,温家宝为政府总理时,政府投资和税收政策的规则性都较强。(4)依据规则调整的财政政策使得经济系统面临技术冲击时波动性加大。(5)提高财政政策的规则性有利于提高社会福利。
In the framework of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, and by the use of the Bayesian estimation method and the shock decomposition method, we have tested the existence of the fiscal rules in China and analyzed their effects on the economic system. The main conclusion we have made are as follows:(1) a complete rule or a complete discretion-directed fiscal policy style does not exist in China, but the nature of the rule can, indeed, play an important role in explaining China's fiscal policy; the nature of the rule has explained the most part of the change of the government investment, about 50% change of the effective indirect tax rate, and a part of the change of the government general expenditure and the effective direct tax rate;(2) The hypothesis, made by foreign researchers, that fiscal rules are fiscal policies adjusted according to the output gap and the government debt, cannot be best geared to the reality of China, while the other hypothesis that fiscal rules are fiscal policies adjusted according to the output gap and ratio of deficit to GDP is more suitable for China than the previous one;(3) the fiscal rules possess the character of the administration, and when Wen Jiabao was the Premier, fiscal rules are more obvious in governmental investment and tax policy;(4) the economic system tends to be more fluctuated when facing the technological shock if the government carries fiscal policies according to fiscal rules;(5) the increase of the nature of rules of the financial policies is beneficial to the rise of the social welfare.
出处
《管理世界》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第5期23-35,187,共13页
Journal of Management World
基金
中西部高校综合能力提升计划项目资助
