摘要
近年来,随着"影子银行"的发展和金融危机导致的实体经济衰退,银行利润和实体经济的关系变得更加复杂。本文采用非线性面板平滑转换回归模型(PSTR)对中国106家银行2001-2011年的银行利润与实体经济关系进行检验,结果显示:整个实体经济和第二、三产业对银行利润有结构性变化的非线性正向影响,且整个实体经济的影响更复杂;第一产业对银行利润有非线性负影响,但并不显著。这一研究结论更贴合地拟合了我国银行利润与实体经济间的动态非线性关系,对商业银行的监管完善及宏观经济政策的制定调整有一定的参考价值。
In recent years, the relationship between banks＇ profits and real economy becomes more complex with the development of shadow banks and the recession of real economy because of financial crisis. Using the data of 106 banks from 2001 to 2011, this paper verifies the relationship between the real economy and the banks＇ profits through the nonlinear panel smooth transition regression model（PSTR）. The results showed that the macro real economy and the secondary and the tertiary industry have a positive nonlinear impact on banks＇ profits, and the impact resulting from the macro real economy is more complex. The primary industry has a negative but insignificant nonlinear impact on banks＇ profits. This conclusion matches the dynamic and nonlinear relationship better between banks＇ profits and real economy in China. It helps to make commercial bank regulation as well as the macro economy policy.
出处
《投资研究》
北大核心
2014年第4期52-62,共11页
Review of Investment Studies
基金
辽宁省教育厅人文社科项目(W2012170)
辽宁省社科联项目(2013005)
辽宁省社科规划基金项目(2012182)的阶段性研究成果
