摘要
构建一个包含三部门的DSGE模型,对政府债务扩张是否挤出私人投资以及是否有害于经济增长的问题进行研究,创新之处在于将财政政策工具细化为六项:政府消费支出、政府生产性投资支出、政府转移支付,以及对消费、劳动和资本征收的三种扭曲性比例税。研究发现:对政府债务膨胀是否挤出私人投资的问题不应该笼统地看待,而在短期看来政府债务膨胀对经济增长的影响总体上来说是正向的。另外,和刺激消费需求相比,增加投资对经济增长的拉动作用更强,政府投资相比私人投资对经济增长的带动作用更强,税收融资优于债务融资。目前我国正处于全面深化改革的关键时期,正确认识政府债务扩张对私人投资和经济增长的影响将会对进行中的财政体制和税收制度改革起到积极的作用。
We build a DSGE model consists of three departments and focus on the issues： does government debt crowd out private investment？ Is government debt expansion harmful the economic growth？ The paper＇s core contribution lies in its detailed specification of fiscal policy instruments and dynamic adjustments of fiscal instruments. We specify policy rules for capital, labor, and consumption taxes, government consumption expenditure, government productive investment spending, and lump-sum transfers. We should be cautious of the problem of the expansion of government debt crowds out private investment, and the expansion of government debt in the short term impact on economic growth is positive on the whole. In addition, compared to stimulate consumer demand and increasing investment will bring a stronger effect on economic growth. Government investment is the strongest engine to stimulate economic growth, and tax financing will be better than debt financing. We are now at critical period of deepening reform, understanding of the impact of government debt on private investment and economic growth will be important for ongoing reform.
出处
《贵州财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期20-29,共10页
Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics
基金
四川省统计科学研究计划项目(2013sc41)的阶段性成果
关键词
政府债务
私人投资
经济增长
挤出效应
挤进效应
government debt
private investment
economic growth
crowding-out effect
crowding-in effect
