摘要
基于1951～2016年NCEP/NCAR再分析海表温和气温降水月数据,判定中、东部型厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件,采用线性倾向估计和MK检验方法分析我国长江中下游区域气候变化特征,采用相关性检验方法探讨该区域气温和降水对两类厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件的响应.结果表明,东部型厄/拉事件多于中部型.厄尔尼诺年的海温异常中心有转移的倾向,表现为近年来中部型厄尔尼诺事件增多.对该区域气候影响较大的厄/拉事件类型分别是中部型和东部型,且降水对厄/拉事件的响应大于气温.中部型厄尔尼诺事件对降水的影响中心在长江中下游南部,而东部型拉尼娜事件对降水的影响主要集中在北部地区.此外,厄/拉事件对气温和降水影响的时滞效应显著,但一般不会超过4个月.
Based on the 1951-2016 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly sea surface temperature,air temperature and precipitation data,central and eastern types of El Nio/La Nia events were identified.Climate change characteristics in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River were analyzed using linear trend estimation and Mann-Kendall test,and the responses of regional temperature and rainfall to the two types of El Nio/La Nia events were studied by correlation analysis.Results show that the eastern El Nio/La Nia events happened more frequently than the central events.Sea surface temperature anomaly center of EL Nio years tended to shift,as in recent years the number of central El Nio events increased significantly.The central El Nio and Eastern La Nia events affected the regional climate more greatly.Precipitation was more sensitive to the El Nio/La Nia events than temperature.The impact of the central El Nio event on precipitation was significant in the southern part of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,while the influence of the eastern La Nia events on precipitation was mainly concentrated in the northern partofthe region.In addition,the lag effect of El Nio/La Nia events on temperature and precipitation were noticeable,but not more than four months.
作者
李煜
陈敏
罗剑锋
彭涛
王诗璞
Li Yu;Chen Min;Luo Jianfeng;Peng Tao;Wang Shipu(College of Hydraulic &Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges Univ.,Yichang 443002,China;Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security,Wuhan 430072,China)
出处
《三峡大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2018年第6期16-21,共6页
Journal of China Three Gorges University：Natural Sciences
基金
"水电工程水文气象重大关键技术应用研究"重大专项(DJ-ZDZX-2016-09)
三峡大学科学基金资助项目(KJ2013B076)
关键词
厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜
气候变化
长江中下游
MK检验
相关性
空间分布
滞后响应
El Nio/La Nia
climate change
the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River
Mann Kendall test
correlation
spatial distribution
lag response
