摘要
基于通过均一性检验的历史观测资料和GPCC格点降水数据,采用逐步回归方法,构建了可以代表浙江省的1901—2017年年降水序列,并通过Morlet小波分析、MK检验、气候趋势等分析了浙江百年降水变化特征。结果表明:浙江68个台站1951—2017年月降水序列数据质量较好,均通过RHtest均一性检验。交叉检验表明,采用逐步回归方法区别台站资料长度建立的最优拟合方程组,能很好地反演浙江68个台站1901—2013年年降水情况。1901—2017年浙江省年降水量无明显线性变化趋势,但存在56 a和35 a两个变化主周期,在1960年前后全省降水由多雨期向少雨期突变。1901—2017年浙江降水气候倾向率呈东北高西南低的分布特征,各地数值分布在-15.6～19.1 mm/10a之间;平均相对变率呈北低南高的分布特征,各地数值分布在11.1%～20.2%之间。
Based on homogeneous precipitation data and GPCC lattice data,the annual precipitation series from 1901to 2017that could represent the Zhejiang province was constructed by using the stepwise regression method, and characteristics of the precipitation series were analyzed through the Morlet wavelet analysis and MK method. Results showed that monthly precipitation series of 68stations in Zhejiang from 1951to 2017were homogeneous by using RHtest method,and the fitting equations had nice fitting results for each stations.Combined with the fitted values,incomplete observation precipitation data were preprocessed by using interpolation and extension, annual precipitation series were constructed in Zhejiang province from 1901to 2017.The characteristic analysis showed that there was no obvious long-term trend of precipitation in Zhejiang province from 1901to 2017. Wavelet analysis showed that the significant oscillation period of precipitation cycle was about 56a and 35a for annual precipitation over Zhejiang from 1901to 2017.A precipitation catastrophe appeared in 1960for annual mean from a rainy period to a less rainy period.The climatic tendency of precipitation was distributed high in the northeast and low in the southwest,with a range of-15.6to 19.1mm/10a in Zhejiang province from 1901to 2017.The average relative variation of precipitation was distributed low in the north and high in the south,with a range of 11.1%to 20.2%.
作者
肖晶晶
李正泉
郭芬芬
姚益平
马浩
王阔
温泉沛
XIAO Jing-Jing;LI Zheng-Quan;GUO Fen-Fen;YAO Yi-Ping;MA Hao;WANG Kuo;WEN Quan-Pei(Zhejiang Climate Center,Zhejiang Meteorological Service,Hangzhou 310017,China;Second Institute of Oceanography,State Oceanic Administration,Hangzhou 310012,China;Wuhan Regional Climate Center,Hubei Meteorological Service,Wuhan 430074,China)
出处
《气候变化研究进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第6期553-561,共9页
Climate Change Research
基金
浙江省科技计划项目(2015C02048
2015C33055)
"十二五"国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAD20B02)
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201427)
关键词
降水序列
逐步回归
变化特征
突变
浙江省
Precipitation series
Stepwise regression
Change characteristics
Catastrophe
Zhejiang province
