摘要
气候变化条件下参考作物腾发量(ET0)的估算及其时空分布规律的预估可为灌区渠系合理配置及水资源优化调度提供参考依据。以广西壮族自治区为例,采用地区校正后的Hargreaves-Samani模型结合HadGEM2-ES全球气候模式RCP2.6、RCP8.5两种情景下2017～2100年研究区内21个站点的预估气温数据及反距离权重插值法(IDW),推求气候变化情景下研究区未来多年平均ET0及其时空分布规律。结果表明,RCP2.6、RCP8.5两种情景下未来广西区内年均ET0值均有不同程度地增长,且具有空间异质性,RCP2.6情景下2071～2100年广西大部分地区年均ET0较基准期(1970～2016年)增加量在80～120mm之间,而RCP8.5情景下2071～2100年广西年均ET0的增量均在120mm以上。
Estimating reference crop evapotranspiration(ET0)and its space-time change law under changing climate can provide the theoretical basis for reasonable allocation of the canal system and water resource optimization dispatch.Monthly air temperatures of HadGEM2-ES under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios during 2017-2100 were downscaled to 21 local meteorological sites in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region by means of bilinear interpolation.On this basis annual values and spatiotemporal distribution of ET0 were analyzed using modified Hargreaves-Samani model and inverse distance weighting(IDW).The results show that annual ET0 would increase by various extent in Guangxi under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios.Meanwhile,spatial heterogeneity could be found in its variation trends.Under RCP2.6 scenario,the average ET0 from 2071to 2100 grew in the range of 80-120 mm from the baseline period(1970-2016)in most parts of Guangxi.However,it would increase sharply under RCP8.5 scenario,so that the annual ET0 across Guangxi all reached as high as above 120 mm.
作者
白凯华
张帅普
代俊峰
甘磊
陈晓冰
罗玉峰
BAI Kai-hua;ZHANG Shuai-pu;DAI Jun-feng;GAN Lei;CHEN Xiao-bing;LUO Yu-feng(The Guangxi Key Laboratory of Theory and Technology for Environmental Pollution Control,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541004,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Pollution Control and Water Safety in Karst Area,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541004,China;School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2019年第1期9-12,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51569007)
广西自然科学基金项目(2015GXNSFCA139004)
广西环境污染控制理论与技术重点实验室研究基金项目(桂科能1701K021)
