摘要
目的分析本地区2011—2016年临床用血情况,了解红细胞、血浆、冷沉淀和血小板的季节性用血特征,通过建立模型对未来用血趋势进行预测。方法采用回顾性研究方法,收集2011—2016年本地区12家具有代表性的医院临床用血资料,分析季节性特征,并利用指数平滑法模型预测2017年1—6月份的临床血液需求量。结果各个血液成分在4个季度的临床用血量均较平稳,差异没有统计学意义。采用的指数平滑法模型很好地预测了临床血液需求量,2017年1—6月份的预测值与实际值基本一致,实际值在预测值95%的置信区间内,相对误差在10%以内。结论临床各成分用血趋势可予以科学预测,应在不断收集数据的基础上及时采用科学方法进行预测,根据预测结果安排好采供血计划,从而满足临床用血需求。
Objective Clinic blood consumption in Chongqing during 2011 to 2016 was analyzed to reveal the seasonal characteristics of consumption regarding red blood cells(RBCs),plasma,cryoprecipitation and platelets. Prediction model was made to better forecast future blood consumption. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed based on the data collected from 12 hospitals in Chongqing during 2011 to 2016. The index smoothing forecasting method was adopted to map out the seasonal characteristics and predict the clinic blood transfusion demand of the S1 and S2 in 2017. Results The difference of blood consumption seasons was not statistically significant. The predictions made by our consumption model was in good consistency with the actual real-life consumption. Conclusion The index smoothing forecasting method sensibly improved the prediction accuracy and helped planning blood collection and supply.
作者
何涛
毛伟
余泽波
张涛
廖红梅
谭茜茜
刘不尽
卿芸
邹海曼
邹晓萍
欧阳熊妍
HE Tao;MAO Wei;YU Zebo;ZHANG Tao;LIAO Hongmei;TAN Xixi;LIU Bujin;QING Yun;ZOU Haiman;ZOU Xiaoptng;OUYANG Xiongyan(Chongqing Blood Center,Chongqing,400015,China;The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Blood Transfusion Department Chongqing)
出处
《中国输血杂志》
CAS
2018年第11期1277-1280,共4页
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion
基金
重庆市卫生和计划生育委员会重点项目(2015ZDXM027)
关键词
临床用血
季节性特征
指数平滑法
预测
采供血计划
clinic blood consumption
seasonal characteristic
index smoothing forecasting method
prediction
blood collection and supply
