摘要
经济增长理论已成为国内外学者研究的现实热点 ,但对于产业结构变动和实际经济增长之间的关系还存在较大的理论分歧。通过运用时间序列经济计量技术对我国的产业结构变动和实际经济增长的关系进行实证分析。可发现 :格兰杰因果关系检验证实产业结构变动是影响我国实际经济增长的重要原因 ,而实际经济增长对产业结构变动没有显著的影响 ;协整检验表明二者存在着长期均衡的协同互动关系。实证结果为我国实际经济增长尽快实现由依靠增加投入的粗放型方式向依靠结构转换。
Based on the normal theory of economic growth, this paper analyzed the relationship between the adjustment of industry structure and the real economic growth by time series technology. The Granger causality test shows that the adjustment of industry structure is the important reason of real economic growth, but the economic growth has no obvious effect on the adjustment of industry structure. The co-integration test shows that there is stable equilibrium relationship between them. The profound policy implication of the result is that China should change the traditional pattern of economic growth thoroughly.
出处
《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2002年第3期146-152,共7页
Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences
关键词
产业结构变动
实际经济增长
协整
格兰杰因果关系检验
adjustment of industry structure
real economic growth
co-integration
Granger causality test.
