摘要
通过定义列车间不确定性冲突,从冗余时间、机车车辆(车底)和其他因素3个方面分析不确定性冲突的影响因素,提出列车间不确定性冲突的预测方法,最后以某铁路沿线车站为例,在原始数据结构基础上进行异常数据处理,并采用基于轨道区段锁闭时间预测列车间不确定性冲突的方法计算得到不确定性冲突发生概率,以期为提高列车间冲突预测的准确性、疏解冲突、制订更加高效的列车运行调整方案提供可靠依据。
Through defining the uncertainty conflict between trains, this paper analyzes the influence factors on the uncertainty conflict from 3 aspects including redundancy time, （allocated train stock） of locomotives and cars and other factors, and puts forward the forecast methods of the uncertainty conflict between trains. In the end, taking stations along certain railway line as an example, the abnormal data process was taken basing on original data structure, and by using the method of forecasting uncertainty conflict between trains based on track sectional interlocking time, the occurrence of uncertainty conflict was calculated and achieved, which could provide reliable reference for increasing forecast accuracy of the conflict between trains, releasing the conflict and drawing more effective train operation adjustment program.
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2014年第7期34-39,共6页
Railway Transport and Economy
基金
轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验室自主课题(RCS2013ZZ001)
教育部博士点基金(20120009120015)
关键词
不确定性冲突
轨道区段锁闭时间
列车调度指挥
Uncertainty Conflict
Track Sectional Interlocking Time
Train Traffic Control Command
